In a nation gearing up for one of the largest democratic exercises in the world when about a billion people (912 million in 2019) are expected to exercise their franchise sometime during the summer of ’24, there has hardly been any major political development except down here in Tamil Nadu where the AIADMK has formally ended its uncomfortable alliance with the BJP and walked out of the NDA.
After a meeting of office bearers, party MLAs, MPs, and district secretaries on September 25, senior AIADMK leader K P Munusamy made the announcement to journalists that the AIADMK had passed a resolution to sever ties with the BJP and would form its own alliance for not just the 2024 polls but also the 2026 assembly elections. The party accused the state BJP leadership, KP Annamalai in particular, of defaming the party and its top leaders including former chief ministers Annadurai and Jayalalithaa, belittling the recent AIADMK conference in Madurai, maligning party general secretary ‘Puratchi Tamizhar’ Edappadi K Palaniswami among other charges.
The first reaction to this announcement by the AIADMK just a few months ahead of the general elections which, despite the INDIA alliance and Manipur violence remains tilted heavily in favour of the NDA led by Modi, was the most obvious: the AIADMK wants to increase its bargaining power during seat sharing talks with the BJP. However, about a week since, more evidence has come out which suggests that AIADMK under its ‘Puratchi Tamizhar’ Edappadi K Palaniswami might in fact walk the talk and go to polls without the saffron baggage at least for the 2024 polls.
More evidence has come out which suggests that AIADMK under its ‘Puratchi Tamizhar’ Edappadi K Palaniswami might in fact walk the talk and go to polls without the saffron baggage at least for the 2024 polls
Almost immediately after the announcement by the AIADMK, around half a dozen Muslim outfits and even a few political parties overwhelmingly welcomed the move through social media posts and pledged their support to the AIADMK. Even Naam Tamizhar Katchi’s Seeman welcomed the move and said AIADMK was the only party in TN that could break all ties with any national party to protect state interests and blamed Stalin’s DMK for its dalliance with the Congress party, which he blamed for the decimation of Tamils in SL. He also highlighted how AIADMK under Jayalalithaa had parted ways with both the Congress and the BJP when the national parties acted against state interests in the past and challenged Stalin do the same if he was serious about protecting Tamil Nadu and its people. The mood among the party cadre has also been jubilant as most squarely blamed the NDA alliance for pulling down what they claim to be the state’s largest party when it headed to polls during recent times.
Since 1989, when J Jayalalithaa took over the AIADMK after a few turbulent years of leadership struggle, the party has been known to be assertive in making bold decisions and the state polity has also rewarded the party with success endorsing such bold moves. It was most obvious in 1999 when the AIADMK brought down the 13-months-old Vajpayee government singlehandedly (literally, as the BJP lost by a single vote). Back then, Jayalalithaa was heavily criticized across the nation for what was considered a ‘reckless’ act compromising national interests for petty gains. However, more than two decades later, the outcome of such decision-making is obvious: Since 1999, the AIADMK had been in power in the state for 15 years and, under Jayalalithaa, the party won three of the four assembly elections comfortably. What this clearly shows is that the AIADMK cadre, and to a certain extent people of TN, prefer leaders who take bold decisions with the state’s interest as their only priority.
From crawler to trawler: The rise and rise of Edappadi K Palaniswami
But, is it even fair to compare someone like Palaniswami with tall leaders like MGR and Jayalalithaa? Especially since he was crawling (again literally) just a few years ago on a podium to prove his loyalty to VK Sasikala, a close aide of Jayalalithaa, who made him the Chief Minister. Whenever EPS comes out with a bold statement, social media is abuzz with memes of him crawling on all fours. However, his track record shows that he has literally transformed from being a crawler into a giant trawler within the AIADMK. In February 2017, when Palaniswami became the Chief Minister, none, even the best political analysts would have expected this innocent-looking, perpetually-smiling legislator from the influential Gounder community in the western TN would one day sit comfortably on the throne of the AIADMK. When he took charge of the government, he had to battle direct rival O Panneerselvam who was in-charge of the party then as its Convenor, former ‘boss’ Sasikala who made him Chief Minister, her nephew TTV Dinakaran who floated his own outfit and split southern voters besides the NDA leaders who were clearly in favour of Panneerselvam at the time. Then came the task of approaching the cadre and voters for the 2021 assembly elections when the state was being ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the results of the 2021 polls have clearly showed the AIADMK’s loyal voters had already accepted EPS as a credible leader with the AIADMK securing 33.29 per cent of the vote share, just about four per cent less than the DMK which got 37.7 per cent of the total vote share, even after 10 years of incumbency. Since then, EPS has comfortably sidelined all other rivals in the AIADMK with OPS, TTV and Sasikala almost out of the limelight. The most recent conference in Madurai revealed the support for this Kongu-belt leader has grown beyond his comfort zone.
Results of the 2021 polls have clearly showed the AIADMK’s loyal voters had already accepted EPS as a credible leader with the AIADMK securing 33.29 per cent of the vote share, just about four per cent less than the DMK which got 37.7 per cent of the total vote share, even after 10 years of incumbency.
With the party now comfortably in his grip, EPS has now dared to challenge the mighty BJP under Modi by calling off the alliance with the national party. While the reasons cited for the split point directly at state BJP president Annamalai and his associates, their behaviour has never really mattered in the AIADMK’s relationship with BJP post Jayalalithaa. At a time when the BJP appears to be looking at a third term at the center, the AIADMK’s decision to go to polls without the NDA will be Edappadi’s next big gamble. Sources in the party have hinted that following the split with the BJP, supporters of OPS and Sasikala-TTV had approached EPS for a reunion but were also rejected by the party leadership.
The BJP, which hasn’t really gained much ground in TN electorally despite the best efforts put by Annamalai and before him, L Murugan and Tamilisai Soundarajan, is likely to arm twist the AIADMK into an alliance in the coming months. What remains to be seen is whether EPS and team will succumb to the pressure or follow the path chosen by Jayalalithaa in making bold decisions in the hope that voters in TN would eventually accept them.